08 травня 2022 р.
Now there is a lot of discussion about whether Putin will decide on a general mobilization. Adherents of a negative answer to this question explain their position by the fact that such a step by Putin would be confirmation that Putin did not achieve his goals in the war between Rossia and Ukraine in a week, a month, or even two and a half months. That is, he lost this phase of the war. And therefore he has no other choice but to put the whole country under arms. Therefore, according to the logic of some experts, in order not to show Putin himself as a loser, there will be no mobilization.
Recall that, according to the logic of some experts, the war should not have started at all. By logic.
In fact, in these conclusions, logic has been replaced by beliefs, that is, those assumptions that we believe are correct because they are supported by our own evidence and the beliefs of others.
But then the war began, and these experts started talking about Putin's special logic, or even about his lack of it. Is it so? What was the basis of their belief that war was impossible? On the fact that a war with Ukraine would lead the Rossian economy - and not only - to a deplorable state.
I will set out a chain of consistent conclusions of experts by the method of contradiction: (1) Putin will start a war –> (2) sanctions, Western aid to Ukraine, motivation of Ukrainians for resistance –> (3) Rossia’s losses in the economy, in the army –> (4) possible even losing the war –> (5) Putin is not will start a war.
But Putin started the war. Is the indicated chain a sequence of strict proofs of the unambiguous value of intermediate and final results? No. For this is a chain of expected results, with varying degrees of probability. This is the chain of our beliefs that this will happen. And belief, as you know, is not an absolutely logical category, but a psychological one. Today we are convinced that the Sun revolves around the Earth, because we observe it with our own eyes, and tomorrow, after reading a textbook, we change our belief. In contrast to the truth, which was before our "enlightenment" and remained so after.
So what is Putin's "illogical" logic? These are also beliefs, his beliefs, that he is on the right path to achieve the goal. As with the logic of experts, his beliefs can also be wrong. Not corresponding to the truth. But this does not limit him to act according to his convictions. Therefore, returning to the question of the possibility of general mobilization in Rossia, we can confidently say that no "logically justified" opinions of experts can rule out the possibility of such an event.
LEXIKOUKR EST. 2013